(Bloomberg) -- Poland will likely begin gradually lowering interest rates in early 2025 if inflation is firmly under control, according to Monetary Policy Council member Ireneusz Dabrowski. 

“If, as we predict, 2025 will be the time of regaining full control over inflation processes, a slow cycle of interest rate cuts could begin early next year,” Dabrowski told Bloomberg News. Easing this year is highly unlikely and a rate increase is still the least probable option for now, “although its likelihood rose slightly due to wage growth.” 

Rapidly rising wages have risen to the top of the list of worries for central bankers in Warsaw as they try to gauge the best moment to resume monetary easing after two successive cuts in September and October. Inflation is back in their target range for now, but expected to accelerate in the coming months as energy prices are partly freed. 

Dabrowski, who usually votes with the majority led by Governor Adam Glapinski, said the 10-member panel was far from any decision to hike rates. “We would be dealing with tightening if there was an explicitly announced plan for increases, and there are no such plans.” 

Commenting on a change in the MPC’s statement following June’s rate meeting, which omitted the word “significant” when discussing higher inflation in the second half of 2024, Dabrowski said the modification has “no bigger significance.” He expects this year’s inflation peak in September or October, with price growth seen at 4%-8% in December. 

Dabrowski said that even if lawmakers start a probe of Glapinski, this won’t impact MPC decisions, which will only be based on economic data. A parliamentary committee moved closer to potentially summoning the governor by officially notifying him of its investigation last month.

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