(Bloomberg) -- China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share bigger than all Group of Seven countries combined, according to Bloomberg calculations using International Monetary Fund forecasts. 

China will account for about 21% of the world’s new economic activity from this year through 2029. That compares with 20% for the G-7, and almost double the nearly 12% for the US. 

In total, 75% of global growth is expected to be concentrated in 20 countries, and over half in the top four: China, India, the US and Indonesia. India is expected to contribute about 14% over the next five years, up from almost 13% in the 2023-2028 period.


While the US and China are both big drivers of global growth, their fiscal policy and debt loads are seen as long-term risks to stability. Over the next few years, Bloomberg Economics projects that India could overtake China as the global growth leader on a purchasing power parity basis.

G-7 members Canada and Italy are expected to contribute less than 1% — a smaller amount compared to some much poorer countries such as Bangladesh or Egypt, where population growth is driving much of that activity.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.